Undervalued Abyss Fishing Zone Formulas : PDD Case Study
Subjects: Undervalued Abyss Fishing Zone Formulas : PDD Case Study
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During the Steep U-Turn from Bull entering Bear, everyone are panicking and selling, there exists opportunities to encounter some Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price.
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— CASE STUDY —
PDD
Non-GAAP.FY2025(12Months)
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All metrics and ratios are Non-Gaap.
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SBC (,000)
= RMB 7,936,971
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EPS
= (Net Income + SBC) ÷ USD/RMB ÷ (Total Shares (Diluted) ÷ 4)
= (99,364,469+7,936,971)÷6.9931÷(5,929,576÷4)
= USD 10.3507581966
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D/E
= (2,498,643+2,880,152)÷414,907,086
= 0.0129638543
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Non-Gaap ROIC
= 100×(99,364,469+7,936,971)÷(414,907,086+2,498,643+2,880,152)
= 25.5305840264
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Non-Gaap ROA
= 100×(99,364,469+7,936,971)÷630,044,327
= 17.0307763123
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Total Liabilities/Total Equity
= 215,137,241÷414,907,086
= 0.5185190812
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CICC Factor
= Clean Invested Capital Cost Factor
= 30Y Government Bond Yield Factor × ( 1 + D/E × (1 + 2 × 30Y Government Bond Yield Ratio) ) ÷ (1 + D/E)
= 1.04982×(1+0.0129638543×(1+0.04982×2))÷(1+0.0129638543)
= 1.0511587169
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CICC Ratio
= 0.0511587169
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CICC
= 5.11587169
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CTAC Factor
= Clean Total Assets Cost Factor
= 30Y Government Bond Yield Factor × ( 1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity × (1 + 2 × 30Y Government Bond Yield Ratio) ) ÷ (1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity)
= 1.04982×(1+0.5185190812×(1+0.04982×2))÷(1+0.5185190812)
= 1.0855384867
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CTAC Ratio
= 0.0855384867
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CTAC
= 8.55384867
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Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS (Dividends Per Share)
= 1÷(1+D/E) × EPS × CICC/ROIC
= 1÷(1+0.0129638543)×10.3507581966×5.11587169÷25.5305840264
= USD 2.0475622232
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(1)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= NCAVPS
= (518,979,892-215,137,241)÷6.9931÷(5,929,576÷4)
= USD 29.3099683501
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(2)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Invested Capital Per Share
= (2,498,643+2,880,152+414,907,086)÷6.9931÷(5,929,576÷4)
= USD 40.5425829111
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(3)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= The Value of “P/E equals Dividend Yield’ Equilibrium State
= √(100×EPS×Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS)
= √(100×10.3507581966×2.0475622232)
= USD 46.0367477835
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(4)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price (CICC Value)
= EPS × CICC
= 10.3507581966×5.11587169
= USD 52.953150828
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(5)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC EPV (CTAC & ROA-CTAC Based)
= EPS × (1 ÷ CTAC Factor) × (1 - (1 ÷ CTAC Factor)^(roa-ctac)) ÷ (1 - 1 ÷ CTAC Factor)
= 10.3507581966×(1÷1.085538486)×(1-(1÷1.085538486)^(17.0307763123-8.55384867))÷(1-1÷1.085538486)
= USD 60.661013937
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(6)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC EPV (CTAC & √(ROA×CTAC) Based)
= EPS × (1 ÷ CTAC Factor) × (1 - (1 ÷ CTAC Factor)^√(roa×ctac)) ÷ (1 - 1 ÷ CTAC Factor)
= 10.3507581966×(1÷1.085538486)×(1-(1÷1.085538486)^√(17.0307763123×8.55384867))÷(1-1÷1.085538486)
= USD 76.0723235844
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(7)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price (ROIC & Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS Based)
= 2 × ROIC × Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS × (1 - Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS÷EPS)
= 2×25.5305840264×2.0475622232×(1-2.0475622232÷10.3507581966)
= USD 83.8689061534
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(8)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC EPV (CICC & √(ROIC×CICC) Based)
= EPS × (1 ÷ CICC Factor) × (1 - (1 ÷ CICC Factor)^√(roic×cicc)) ÷ (1 - 1 ÷ CICC Factor)
= 10.3507581966×(1÷1.0511587169)×(1-(1÷1.0511587169)^√(25.5305840264×5.11587169))÷(1-1÷1.0511587169)
= USD 87.9290645597
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(9)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price (CTAC Value)
= EPS × CTAC
= 10.3507581966×8.55384867
= USD 88.5388192335
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(10)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC EPV (CTAC & ROA Based)
= EPS × (1 ÷ CTAC Factor) × (1 - (1 ÷ CTAC Factor)^roa) ÷ (1 - 1 ÷ CTAC Factor)
= 10.3507581966×(1÷1.0855384867)×(1-(1÷1.0855384867)^17.0307763123)÷(1-1÷1.0855384867)
= USD 91.1019655564
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(11)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= 2 × √(100×EPS×Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS)
= 2×√(100×10.3507581966×2.0475622232)
= USD 92.073495567
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(12)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price (ROIC & Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS Based)
= ROIC × Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS × (2 - Theoretical Affordable Payable DPS÷EPS)
= 25.5305840264×2.0475622232×(2-2.0475622232÷10.3507581966)
= USD 94.2099124654
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(13)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
(2 × CICC Value)
= 2 × EPS × CICC
= 2×10.3507581966×5.11587169
= USD 105.906301656
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(14)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
(ROIC Mean Reversion Value)
= EPS × √(ROIC × CICC)
= 10.3507581966×√(25.5305840264×5.11587169)
= USD 118.293902611
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(15)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss EPV (Bruce Greenwald, but CTAC Based)
= EPS ÷ CTAC Ratio
= 10.3507581966÷0.0855384867
= USD 121.0070296532
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(16)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= EPS × (ROIC × ROA × CICC × CTAC)^(1÷4)
= 10.3507581966×(25.5305840264×17.0307763123×5.11587169×8.55384867)^(1÷4)
= USD 121.5671578527
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(17)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC Number (ROA Based)
= ROA × √(EPS × ROA Ratio × NCAVPS)
= 17.0307763123×√(10.3507581966×0.170307763123×29.3099683501)
= USD 122.4180404789
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(18)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= √((50×ROIC Ratio×Non-Gaap EPS)^2-100×Non-Gaap EPS×Theorectical Affordable Payable DPS)
=
√((50×0.2553058403×10.3507581966)^2-100×10.3507581966×2.0475622232)
= USD 123.8510150278
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(19)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
(ROA Mean Reversion Value)
= EPS × √(ROA × CTAC)
= 10.3507581966×√(17.0307763123×8.55384867)
= USD 124.930985809
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(20)
Abyss Fishing Undervalued Price
= Abyss ATC EPV (CICC & ROIC-CICC Based)
= EPS × (1 ÷ CICC Factor) × (1 - (1 ÷ CICC Factor)^(roic-cicc)) ÷ (1 - 1 ÷ CICC Factor)
= 10.3507581966×(1÷1.0511587169)×(1-(1÷1.0511587169)^(25.5305840264-5.11587169))÷(1-1÷1.0511587169)
= USD 129.2628813874