Complemental Derivation Approach to Logical Regressive P/E Family — PDD Case Study
Subject : Complemental Derivation Approach to Logical Regressive P/E Family — PDD Case Study
.
PDD
FY2025
.
:: Logical NetROIC Derivation Steps ::
φ (Related to Spatial Growth)
= 1.6180339887 (Golden Ratio)
.
e (Related to Population Growth)
= 2.7182818285
.
(I)
Initial Logical NetROIC (Survival Phase, beginning New Business)
= CICC
= 5.11587169
.
(II)
Sequential Logical NetROIC
= 5.11587169×√(φ)×1
= 6.5074893141
.
(III)
Sequential Logical NetROIC
= 5.11587169×√(φ)×√(e)
= 10.729036051
.
(IV)
Sequential Logical NetROIC
= 5.11587169×(φ)×√(e)
= 13.6475446772
.
(V)
Sequential Logical NetROIC
= Idealistic Perfect Peak Logical NetROIC
= 5.11587169×(φ)×(e)
= 22.5009972021
.
Now We have the Logical Sequential NetROIC Sequence :
5.11587169
6.5074893141
10.729036051
13.6475446772
22.5009972021
.
:: FY2025 ::
Non-Gaap NetROIC FY2025
= 25.5305840264
.
Non-Gaap EPS
= USD 10.3507581966
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Gaap NetROIC FY2025
= 23.6421144492
.
Gaap EPS
= 9.5851238525
::
.
The 22.5009972021 is selected as Master as it is the next smaller and nearest to Both Gaap NetROIC FY2025 23.6421144492 and Non-Gaap NetROIC FY2025 25.5305840264
➡️ Master NetROIC = 22.5009972021
.
:: REGRESSIVE P/E Derivation (by geometric methodology) ::
.
Master Logical NetROIC
= 22.5009972021
.
Concept :
Logical Regressive P/E
= √(Master Logical NetROIC × Respective Sequential Logical NetROIC)
.
Logical Regressive P/E
= √(22.25009972021×13.6475446772)
= 17.4258207842
.
Logical Regressive P/E
= √(22.25009972021×10.729036051)
= 15.4506350043
.
Logical Regressive P/E
= √(22.25009972021×6.5074893141)
= 12.0329666403
.
Floor Logical Regressive P/E
= √(22.25009972021×5.11587169)
= 10.669051282
.
Now We have the Logical Regressive P/E Sequence :
17.4258207842
15.4506350043
12.0329666403
10.669051282
.
Logical Regressive LOWER FLOOR Price
= 10.669051282 × 9.5851238525
= USD 102.2641779266
.
Logical Regressive UPPER FLOOR Price
= 10.669051282 × 10.3507581966
= USD 110.432770007
.
****
Conclusion:
Logical Regressive FLOOR PRICE Range
= USD 102.2641779266 — USD 110.4327700071
****
OR
SHORT-CUT
Logical Regressive FLOOR P/E (SHORT-CUT)
= √(Master Logical NetROIC×CICC)
= √(22.5009972021 × 5.11587169)
= 10.729036051
.
Logical Regressive LOWER FLOOR Price (SHORT-CUT)
= 10.729036051 × 9.5851238525
= USD 102.8391393668
.
Logical Regressive UPPER FLOOR Price (SHORT-CUT)
= 10.729036051 × 10.3507581966
= USD 111.0536578465
.
****
Conclusion:
Logical Regressive FLOOR PRICE Range (SHORT-CUT)
= USD 102.8391393668 — USD 111.0536578465
****
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Based on Dataroma, the reported price of :
Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management (2026Q1) : $102.22
.
Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management (2026Q1) : $102.18
.
Norbert Lou - Punch Card Management (2026Q1) : $102.18
.
Duan Yongping - H&H International Investment (2025Q4) : $113.39
.
Reference :