Potential Contrarian Floor Price [ Triadic Growth Value Model (Regressive_ROA & CTAC Based) ] — PDD Case Study
Subject : Potential Contrarian Floor Price [ Triadic Growth Value Model (Regressive_ROA & CTAC Based) ] — PDD Case Study
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Potential Contrarian Floor Price
=
Triadic Growth Value Model (Regressive_ROA & CTAC Based)
=
EPS_Gaap × Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor × (1 - (Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor)^Regressive_ROA)÷(1 -Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor)
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Where :
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Triadic Growth Factor
= 1 + 0.01 × ∛(φ×e×π)
= 1.0239962843
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The expression ∛(φ×e×π) naturally embeds three fundamental constants of growth:
φ (golden ratio) → discrete, optimal growth (Fibonacci, phyllotaxis)
e → continuous exponential growth (compound interest, populations)
π → cyclical growth (oscillations, periodic returns)
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∛(φ×e×π) can be interpreted as the geometric mean of growths unifying discrete, continuous, and cyclic growth into one dimensionless rate.
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Regressive_ROA
= √(ROA × CTAC)
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Regressive ROA is to simulate a Worse Case scenario, aiming to deduce a logical Potential Contrarian Floor Price which may or may not happen on the Year (ROA × CTAC) from now.
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Notes :
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CTAC_Factor is high, for CTAC > Inflation and Bond Yield.
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EPS (Gaap) is a punitive value, very Low.
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ROA (Gaap) is the lowest in the Return of Capital family.
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Triadic Growth Value Model (ROA & CTAC Based) Model is conservatively low.
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:: Therefore ::
Triadic Growth Value Model (ROA & CTAC Based) can be regarded as a Potential Contrarian Floor Price in a sense.
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Reminder :
Triadic Growth Value = Potential Contrarian Floor Price
Triadic Growth Value ≠ Intrinsic Value
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CASE STUDY
PDD Holdings
Audited_Annual.Report.FY2025
Gaap
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EPS_Gaap (Diluted)
= 97,842,539÷6.9931÷(5,929,576÷4)
= USD 9.4383119419
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ROA_Gaap
= 100×97,842,539÷630,044,327
= 15.5294690877
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Triadic Growth Factor
= 1 + 0.01 × ∛(φ×e×π)
= 1.0239962843
.
CTAC Factor
= Clean Total Assets Cost Factor
= Inflation Factor × (1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity × (1 + 2 × 10Y or 30Y Bond Yield Ratio)) ÷ (1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity)
Adaptation : 30Y Bond Yield Factor Replaces Inflation Factor
= 30Y Bond Yield Factor × (1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity × (1 + 2 × 30Y Bond Yield Ratio)) ÷ (1 + Total Liabilities/Total Equity)
= 1.04982×(1+0.5241097022×(1+2×0.04982))÷(1+0.5241097022)
= 1.0857911674
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Regressive_ROA
= √(ROA × CTAC)
= √(15.5294690877 × 8.57911674)
= 11.5424922878
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Regressive ROA is to simulate a Worse Case scenario, aiming to deduce a logical Potential Contrarian Floor Price which may or may not happen on the Year (15.5294690877 - 8.57911674) = 6.9503523477 from now.
.
Potential Contrarian Floor Price
= Triadic Growth Value Model (ROA & CTAC Based)
=
EPS × Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor × (1 - (Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor)^Regressive_ROA)÷(1 -Triadic Growth Factor ÷ CTAC_Factor)
=
9.4383119419 × 1.0239962843 ÷ 1.0857911674 × (1 - (1.0239962843 ÷ 1.0857911674)^11.5424922878)÷(1 - 1.0239962843 ÷ 1.0857911674)
= USD 76.8754983558
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P/E at Triadic Growth Value USD 76.8754983558
= 76.8754983558÷9.4383119419
= 8.1450474226
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Current Stock Price on 2026.May.19
= USD 97.34
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Reference :
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https://hedgefollow.com/stocks/PDD
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https://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=PDD