Forecast 52wL NTM & The Lowest Fair Value Among Analysts NTM Derivation - PDD Study
Subject : Forecast 52wL NTM & The Lowest Fair Value Among Analysts NTM Derivation - PDD Study
.
(A)
Forecast 52wL NTM
= Current 52wL Price × (Lowest Net Income Growth Factor Among Analysts ÷ Discount_Factor)^(Inflation)
.
(B)
Forecast The Lowest Fair Value Among Analysts NTM
=
Current 52wL Price × (Lowest Net Income Growth Factor Among Analysts ÷ Discount_Factor)^(ROA Gaap - CTAC)
.
Discount Factor
= Inflation Rate
.
Condition :
52wL Price < Intrinsic Value
.
:: STUDY ::
PDD
FY2025
Present EPS Gaap FY2025
= USD 9.5851238525
.
Lowest Net Income Growth Factor by Analysts = 1.098
.
Inflation
= Inflation Rate for the 12 months ending in April 2026
= 4 %
.
Discount Factor
= 1.04
.
ROA Gaap
= 15.771028282
.
CTAC
= 8.5538486
.
Current 52wL Price
= USD 93.81
.
(A)
Forecast 52wL NTM
= Current 52wL Price × (Lowest Net Income Growth Factor Among Analysts ÷ Discount_Factor)^(Inflation)
= 93.81×(1.098÷1.04)^4
= USD 116.5534516085
.
(B)
Forecast The Lowest Fair Value Among Analysts NTM
=
Current 52wL Price × (Lowest Net Income Growth Factor Among Analysts ÷ Discount_Factor)^(ROA Gaap - CTAC)
= 93.81×(1.098÷1.04)^(15.771028282-8.5538486)
= USD 138.7876588101
.
Conservative because :
1. Lowest Net Income Growth Factor Among Analysts is adopted
2. GAAP Punishes shareholders by treating SBC as expenses.
3. EPS Gaap (< EPS Non_Gaap) is adopted
4. For PDD, EPS (< FCFPS) is adopted
5. ROA Gaap (< ROA Non_Gaap) is adopted
6. (ROA Gaap - CTAC) (< (ROIC-CICC)) is adopted
.
Caution :
1. Please make sure both 52wL and 52wH are lower than Intrinsic Value.
Intrinsic value > 52wH
Intrinsic value > 52wL
2. If FCFPS is less than EPS, replace EPS with FCFPS in the formula.