Price Sequence Hypothesis (GAAP: EPS REALM, Low to High) — PDD Case Study
Subject : Price Sequence Hypothesis (GAAP: EPS REALM, Low to High) — PDD Case Study
.
PDD
FY2025
.
GAAP
.
EPS Diluted
= USD 9.5851238525
.
(A)
GAAP : EPS REALM
.
(1)
CICC Value (Too Low To Be True)
= EPS × CICC
= 9.5851238525 × 5.11587169
= USD 49.0362637621
.
(2)
ROA Spread Value (Too Low To Be True)
= EPS × (ROA - CTAC)
= 9.5851238525 × (15.771028282 - 8.5538486)
= USD 69.1775611177
.
(3)
CTAC Value (Possibly The Next 52wL)
= EPS × CTAC
= 9.5851238525 × 8.5538486
= USD 81.9896982465
.
(4)
ROA Spread + NCAVPS Value (Possibly The Next 52wL)
= EPS × (ROA - CTAC) + NCAVPS
= 9.5851238525 × (15.771028282 - 8.5538486) + 29.3099683501
= 69.1775611177 + 29.3099683501
= USD 98.4875294678
.
(5)
ATC Number (ROA Based)
= ROA × √(EPS × ROA Ratio × NCAVPS)
= 15.771028282 × √(9.5851238525 × 0.1577102828 × 29.3099683501)
= USD 104.977579526
.
(6)
Regressed ROA Value
= EPS × √(ROA × CTAC)
= 9.5851238525 × √(15.771028282 × 8.5538486)
= USD 111.3290527222
.
(7)
Discounted EPS Model (ROA Total Runway)
=
EPS × (CICC_Factor/CTAC_Factor) × [1 - (CICC_Factor/CTAC_Factor)^CTAC] ÷ [1 - CICC_Factor/CTAC_Factor]
+
EPS × (1/CTAC_Factor) × [1 - (1/CTAC_Factor)^(ROA - CTAC)] ÷ [1 - 1/CTAC_Factor]
=
9.5851238525 × (1.0511587169÷1.085538486) × (1 - (1.0511587169÷1.085538486)^8.5538486) ÷ (1 - 1.0511587169÷1.085538486)
+
9.5851238525 × (1÷1.085538486) × (1 - (1÷1.085538486)^(15.771028282 - 8.5538486)) ÷ (1 - 1÷1.085538486)
= 70.5251968348 + 50.086745995
= USD 120.6119428299
.
(8)
Geometric Mean ROA & EPV Multiple Value
= EPS × √(ROA × 1/CTAC_Ratio)
= 9.5851238525 × √(15.771028282 × 1÷0.085538486)
= USD 130.1508337688
.
(9)
Regressed ROA + NCAVPS Value
= EPS × √(ROA × CTAC) + NCAVPS
= 9.5851238525 × √(15.771028282 × 8.5538486) + 29.3099683501
= 111.3290527222 + 29.3099683501
= USD 140.6390210723
.
(10)
ROA Value
= EPS × ROA
= 9.5851238525 × 15.771028282
= USD 151.1672593643
.
(B)
Non-GAAP :
Repeat the steps above with Non-GAAP figures.