The Correlation Between P/E & Terminal Growth, Gnet_income_minimum, ROIC, ROA, CICC, CTAC: With PDD Case Study
The Correlation Between P/E & Terminal Growth, Gnet_income_minimum, ROIC, ROA, CICC, CTAC: With PDD Case Study
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巴菲、芒格、李录的共识：
长期而言，股价的成长率，与ROIC不相上下。
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而股价的成长率，与盈利成长率Gnet_income 成正比。
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能长期生存的企业，其盈利成长率Gnet_income，不小于 Clean Invested Capital Cost 或 Clean Total Assets Cost。
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不妨取用 CICC 和 CTAC 来代表最小、最保守之Gnet_income_minimum。
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CICC & CTAC (Gnet_income_minimum), 是计算而来，数据取自财报，无 BETA & ERP 因素，不是靠猜的，适合用于 DCF 里的 Terminal Growth。
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CICC & CTAC
= Gnet_income_minimum
= Terminal Growth
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Gnet_income is the virtual reflection in the mirror, of the bodies in front of the mirror.
The physical and lively bodies in front of the mirror are ROIC, ROA, CICC & CTAC.
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PDD Case Study:
Fin.2025.Q3.Sep.TTM
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P/E (CONSERVATIVE, Invested Capital Based)
= √(ROIC × Terminal Growth)
= √(ROIC × CICC)
= √(25.4354775147×5.14237493)
= 11.4367286365
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P/E (CONSERVATIVE, Total Assets Based)
= √(ROA × Terminal Growth)
= √(ROA × CTAC)
= √(16.6638511789×8.66269341)
= 12.0147340292
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P/E (CONSERVATIVE, Mean of Invested Capital & Total Assets Based)
= ⁴√(ROIC × ROA × CICC × CTAC)
=(25.4354775147×16.6638511789×5.14237493×8.66269341)^(1÷4)
= 11.7221692844
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P/E (CONSERVATIVE Invested Capital Based) is the least :
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P (CONSERVATIVE Intrinsic)
> 11.4367286365 × 10.289979567
> USD 117.6837039829
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Comparison:
(I)
EPV
(Bruce Greenwald, Invested Capital Based)
= EPS ÷ Cost of Capital
= 10.289979567÷0.0514237493
= USD 200.1016982828
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(II)
AEPV
(ATC’s Earning Power Value, CONSERVATIVE without injecting Growth, Invested Capital Based)
= EPS ttm ÷ Discount Factor × ( 1 - [1 ÷ Discount Factor]^ROIC_POWER) ÷ ( 1 - 1 ÷ Discount Factor )
= 10.289979567÷1.0514237493×(1-(1÷1.0514237493)^25.4354775147)÷(1-1÷1.0514237493)
= USD 144.2131953203 (P/E 14.0149156158)
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AEPV
(ATC’s Earning Power Value, CONSERVATIVE without injecting Growth, Geometric Mean of Invested Capital & Total Assets Based)
= EPS ttm ÷ Mean Discount Factor × ( 1 - [1 ÷ Mean Discount Factor]^Geometric_Mean_ROIC_ROA_POWER) ÷ ( 1 - 1 ÷ Discount Factor )
= 10.289979567÷√(1.0514237493×1.0866269341)×(1-(1÷√(1.0514237493×1.0866269341))^√(25.4354775147×16.6638511789))÷(1-1÷√(1.0514237493×1.0866269341))
= USD 111.4806781074
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(III)
AEPV
(ATC’s Earning Power Value, ULTIMATE with injecting Terminal Growth Factor & Slightly Higher Discount Factor To Preserve Convergence, Invested Capital Based)
= EPS ttm × Terminal Growth Factor ÷ Discount Factor × ( 1 - [Terminal Growth Factor ÷ Discount Factor]^ROIC_POWER) ÷ ( 1 - Terminal Growth Factor ÷ Discount Factor )
= 10.289979567×1.0514237493÷1.05142374931×(1−(1.0514237493÷1.05142374931)^25.4354775147)÷(1−1.0514237493÷1.05142374931)
= USD 261.73054387024
= By Simplified Math:
= ROIC × EPS
= 25.4354775147×10.289979567
= USD 261.7305439031509421349
= Surprise !